Will Timor-Leste Ever Join ASEAN?

In 2002, the Government of Timor-Leste established the position of Vice-Minister for ASEAN affairs as a part of their newly formed constitution. However, more than two decades have passed since the position's establishment, and yet Timor-Leste is only regarded as a member in theory’ for the economic bloc, reaching this status a mere two years ago.

While Timor-Leste has been granted observer status and has been allowed to sit in at every gathering of ASEAN countries, full membership has been hanging above their heads, taunting the country.

Although all ASEAN member states, including the organization itself, have publicly supported the fledgling democracy’s ascension to ASEAN. Multiple countries within the bloc have expressed their concerns, or sometimes even rejection for Timor-Leste to join. Singapore for example, has in private, rejected TL’s bid to join the alliance, citing security concerns, as well as decreased credibility if Timor-Leste and Papua New Guinea were allowed to join. 

Singapore’s concerns are not without merit, ever since the coup of fellow ASEAN member state Myanmar, other ASEAN countries have been reluctant to accept new members. In addition, ASEAN’s response to the overthrow of Myanmar’s democracy has been lackluster at best. Countries within the bloc have been divided on how to approach the issue. This division between the member states has substantially reduced the credibility of the bloc in recent years. So much so that the President of the United States Joe Biden skipped the ASEAN summit in Jakarta, Indonesia. Demonstrating a stark, staggering shift in the foreign policy and priorities of the United States.

But it's not just concerns over credibility or reluctance to new members that are preventing the ascension of Asia’s newest country. Seven criteria need to be met for Timor-Leste to join. Joao da Cruz Cardoso writing for ‘The Diplomat’ outlines them here:

Demonstrate the ability and readiness to implement and abide by the ASEAN Charter and carry out the obligations of ASEAN membership as well as the institutional capacity to implement and abide by the ASEAN Community Vision, the ASEAN Community Blueprints, and its attendant documents.

Be able to implement and abide by all ASEAN treaties, conventions, agreements, and instruments under the three ASEAN Community pillars.

Establish a dedicated diplomatic mission to ASEAN in Jakarta.

Designate national implementing agencies, focal points, and representatives for ASEAN sectoral meetings and working groups including ensuring sufficient English-speaking personnel in all relevant line ministries and agencies.

Establish bilateral agreements on the mutual recognition of official and diplomatic passports with the ASEAN member states and agreements by the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Visa Exemption.

Prepare a financial scheme to meet all financial obligations of ASEAN membership.

Ensure required physical infrastructure and logistic readiness to host ASEAN meetings and accommodate delegates within a rotating chairmanship.

Requirements 1-6 have either already been met by the government of Timor-Leste, or are in the process of being completed. Its criterion number seven, however, poses the real issue. Timor-Leste’s infrastructure and Gross Domestic Product is nowhere near that of the poorest full-ASEAN member, Laos. Timor-Leste, while it has made significant progress in order to address systemic poverty, lack of education, clean water, and sanitation, amongst many other issues, still has fallen flat when compared to the well-developed economies of Singapore, Brunei, and Indonesia.

Overall, while it is possible for Timor-Leste to join ASEAN in the future, significant progress must be made in order to build up its infrastructure. By developing its economy, Timor-Leste can push past its current stereotypes and stigmas that come with being one of the world’s youngest countries.